[If you're already seen this one, my apologies: it doesn't seem to have ever reached my own system, so I'm re-sending it on the assumption that it may have gotten lost altogether.]
FCC licenses three "big LEO" systems: Iridium (Motorola), Odyssey (TRW), and Globalstar (Loral/Qualcomm).
Upgrades to Cheyenne Mountain (NORAD HQ, which does space tracking among other things) progressing despite fumbling and delays.
Photo of the Long March explosion. Six people died, and a number were injured, in villages hit by debris; the insurers are gritting their teeth in anticipation of the bill. (They're already unhappy because of the heavy losses in 1994. They're also holding their breaths for the $400M exposure they face on the next Ariane launch.)
AsiaSat is trying to decide what to do about the summer Long March launch it has booked. The launch has already slipped because AsiaSat wants to see the report on the Telstar 402 post-launch loss first. Furthermore, it plans to buy insurance, but hasn't yet. Asiasat is making it very clear that it wants a thorough and conclusive analysis of this accident, not vague waffling like what followed the Optus B2 loss in 1992.
The explosion seemed to occur roughly at maximum dynamic pressure, about the same time as the Optus B2 loss. Many think that what happened to OB2 was that the payload fairing failed, but nobody is sure... and it was the same satellite type, an HS 601. Both Hughes and Great Wall made changes after the OB2 loss, but neither disclosed details. The Chinese press is already pointing the finger at Hughes for this one; Hughes finds this annoying and says it will take time to establish the cause. The HS 601 has flown 17 times, and apart from two losses that were clearly launcher failures, the Long March failures are the only bad ones. An HS 601 flew successfully on an Atlas from the Cape two days after the Long March accident. There is widespread doubt that a satellite failure could cause such a spectacular explosion.
Hughes plans to expand its on-site team of investigators, and is also talking about recruiting an outside oversight team to make sure nothing is overlooked and to defuse suspicion of coverups. The Hughes investigation report will be published.
Would-be users of the lost Apstar 2 all have backup arrangements in place. APT holds an option on another HS 601 and is negotiating to turn this into a purchase, but it could not be available until mid-1996.
New US-China agreement, initialled 30 Jan, authorizes China to conduct up to 11 Clarke-orbit launches for foreign customers through 2001, subject to prices being "on a par" with the Western launch cartel's, this being apparently defined as at best 15% less. There is an escape clause in the event of a launch shortage in the West, and some provision for LEO launches. Long March currently has the lowest price but also the shortest backlog of any major launcher.
SES exercises a contract option and books a Proton launch for its Astra 1F broadcastsat in early 1996.
LKEI points out that Proton launched 13 times in 1994, all successful -- the best record of any commercial launcher for the year, partly because none of its competitors has yet launched more than 10 times in one year -- and observes that this was done despite one of Baikonur's two Proton pads being shut down for nine months of the year.
Japan's FY95 space budget is up 5.1% over FY94, although that is not enough to cover rising costs. Hope is funded for early development even though development has not yet been formally approved. Existing programs are all on track, although some have been pinched a bit; for example, ISAS says static testing for its new M-5 launcher will be limited due to funding shortages.
There is a difference between | Henry Spencer cynicism and skepticism. | henry@zoo.toronto.edu